MENG Hang, HUANG Xixia, LIU Juan, et al. Icing prediction of wind turbine blade based on transfer learning[J]. 2020, (12): 40-42. DOI: 10.13873/J.1000-9787(2020)12-0040-03.
基于迁移学习的风机叶片结冰预测方法
摘要
风电机组低温环境下运行存在叶片结冰问题
而实际运行过程中不同风机不同工况的运行数据具有较大差异。针对单一工况
单一模型无法满足实际预测需求
提出一种基于迁移学习的风机叶片结冰预测方法。有效利用风机历史数据与当前工况数据存在的相似性
辅以迁移算法实现相似工况的划分
采用XGBoost对应不同工况自适应选择出最优特征且训练模型
从而实现多工况、多模型的风机叶片结冰预测。基于SCADA系统采集数据的实验结果表明
此建模方法利用21号风机大量历史数据和15号风机少量新数据的情况下可以有效挖掘历史数据
实现不同工况下的快速建模。通过迁移算法后21号风机模型预测15号风机准确率提高10%
验证了该建模方法的有效性。
Abstract
There is a problem of blade icing in the operation of wind turbine under low temperature environment
but the operation data of different working conditions of different wind turbine are quite different in the actual operation process. A single model cannot meet actual forecasting requirements for a single operating condition
a method for predicting wind turbine blade icing based on transfer learning is proposed. Effectively utilize the similarity between the historical data of the wind turbine and the current working condition data
supplemented by the transfer algorithm to achieve partition of similar working conditions
and use XGBoost to adaptively select the optimal features and training models for different working conditions
thus achieving multiple working conditions and multiple model wind turbine blade icing prediction. Experimental results based on data acquisition by SCADA system indicate that this modeling method can effectively mine historical data with the large amount of historical data of No. 21 fan and a small amount of new data of No. 15 fan
and realize rapid modeling under different working conditions. After the transfer algorithm
the accuracy of No. 21 fan model in predicting No. 15 fan is increased by 10 %
which verified the effectiveness of the modeling method.